Introduction
This is a prediction for the winner of the year's Best Picture Oscar using a mathematical formula. Inspired by data-centric entities like the
Football Outsiders,
BoxOfficeQuant, and the
VFX Predictinator, I devised an algorithm to accurately forecast the annual Best Picture Oscar winner.
Prior to the 2011 Academy Awards, I cooked up a recipe using quantifiable data (box office, critical reviews, award nominations & wins) that successfully predicted the previous decade of Best Picture winners (with one exception,
Crash in 2005). This formula then accurately projected
The King's Speech as the Oscar winner in 2011, and went on to properly foresee 4 winners in 6 years. See the
past predictions and nominees from
all years
pitted against each other.
After incorrect predictions in 2014 (
Gravity instead of
12 Years a Slave) and 2016 (
The Revenant instead of
Spotlight), I tweaked the formula to correctly predict the winners of those years and this 2.0 version of the formula has been retroactively applied to all years. Unfortunatly the 2.0 algorithm failed to predict the 2017 winner
Moonlight.
The formula has failed 3 years in a row, but hey, maybe this year it will get back on track! The race appears to be pretty tight with 5 of the 8 nominees having a decent chance of winning.
Data
(click column headings to re-sort)
| Film |
Score |
Critics |
Box Offfice |
Awards |
| The Favourite |
30.53 |
9.72 |
10.39 |
9.92 |
| Green Book |
28.41 |
11.25 |
9.68 |
6.98 |
| Roma |
27.66 |
10.51 |
5.00 |
11.66 |
| A Star is Born |
26.38 |
10.03 |
8.46 |
7.89 |
| BlacKKKlansman |
26.30 |
7.96 |
10.08 |
7.76 |
| Vice |
20.67 |
1.76 |
10.10 |
8.30 |
| Bohemian Rhapsody |
19.69 |
6.68 |
8.44 |
4.07 |
| Black Pather |
9.66 |
6.75 |
-1.07 |
3.49 |
| Film |
Score |
| The Favourite |
30.53 |
| Green Book |
28.41 |
| Roma |
27.66 |
| A Star is Born |
26.38 |
| BlacKKKlansman |
26.30 |
| Vice |
20.67 |
| Bohemian Rhapsody |
19.69 |
| Black Pather |
9.66 |
Roma is the most highly decorated in awards this year, the critics love
Green Book more than the other nominees, and
The Favourite has a slightly more favorable box office indicator than the other films.
Prediction
BlacKKKlansman,
A Star is Born,
Roma, and
Green Book all had strong showings this year. The scores are close enough that none of them would really be a surprise winner. That said,
The Favourite will be the next Best Picture thanks to its good results in all categories.
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
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I'll be as surprised as you if it comes up accurate this year.
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